- Dhaka needs not worry about Indian prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s comment on Bangladesh’s migrants as analysts say it is "mostly rhetoric" and India does not change its foreign policy with the change of regime. BJP leader Modi recently said ‘illegal Bangladeshi migrants in India should pack and leave’ on May 16 when the results of the world’s largest democratic exercise would be announced.
Though he clarified his statement late on Friday that he would make every effort to improve relations with Bangladesh should he come to power, concerns remained.
Concerns grow particularly in social media as the opinion polls in India show Modi is likely to be the next prime minister of Bangladesh’s largest neighbour.
But veteran Indian journalist Kuldip Nayar said Modi made those statements “only to communalise the elections”.
Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, had been in office when the 2002 riots broke out in Gujarat and has been accused of not acting enough to stop the violence.
He has not yet been cleared by the higher court for his complicity.
Modi’s party BJP had earlier insisted it would build a temple on the Babri mosque site which was destroyed in 1992.
But later it softened its stance on the issue to woo ally since BJP would need at least 272 seats out of 534 to form a government.
Nayar said Modi’s speeches had already been “mellowed down” and that “he says ‘I have to carry everyone to govern the country’.”
He was speaking at a roundtable in Dhaka on Saturday where analysts of both India and Bangladesh including former ambassadors, senior journalists, editors, teachers, businessmen, lawyers and members of the civil society participated.
The Institute of Conflict, Law and Development Studies (ICLDS) organised the roundtable on India-Bangladesh relations after elections that analysts said would not change much.
They argued India’s foreign policy “dominated by its bureaucrats” did not change with the change of regime.
Kuldip Nayar said he did not believe that Modi would be the next prime minister. Even if he headed a new government, he said, “There are constitution, courts, media and liberal voices in the country which will fight against communalism.”
Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Veena Sikri who joined the roundtable through Skype from New Delhi believed that the relations would continue to grow.
“There is no foreign policy issue that is being contested in the election campaigning, so it is very clear that after the elections the relationship would continue to grow and develop as usual,” she said.
She said the “illegal migrants” issue was nothing new.
The issue had been discussed in 1992 when then the Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia visited India.
Sikri said it had been agreed that both sides should discuss the issue and should come to a mutual agreement and solution through dialogue.
“I think it would be good to have dialogue on the subject for mutually acceptable solutions,” she said.
Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, Chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), Bangladesh government’s rural development funding agency, said Modi’s statement was “unacceptable”.
He was surprised by the comment and said it would “slim the chances of expanding mutual relations”.
“It’s a matter of concern,” he said.
India and Bangladesh share one of the world’s largest borders and at least 54 rivers. But bilateral ties had their “ups and downs”, speakers at the discussion said.
It was at its “best” in the last five years when the Awami League and Congress were in power. Even then, there have been issues that remained unresolved including Teesta water-sharing treaty.
The discussants also shed light on bilateral relations and credited Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her initiatives to strengthen the relations.
Ahmad, who is also an economist, said he found “a lack of interest” among the bureaucrats of both sides to take forward the issues that politicians promise.
Senior Bangladesh journalist Jaglul Ahmed Chowdhury does not see Modi’s comment as “a big issue”.
He said Modi made those statements when he had campaigned in West Bengal, Assam, and Odisha and where Muslims vote mostly go to Congress or left-leaning parties.
“He was trying to use the sensitivity of issue to woo voters,” he said.
Founding director of the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, retired major general Dipankar Banerjee, however, believes otherwise.
“Modi represents development, aspiration and the future of India,” he said, adding that if he came to power, it would give “a unique opportunity” to work together as both countries would have new government.
But former President of Bangladesh’s apex business body, FBCCI, Annisul Huq staunchly rejected his claim.
“We are concerned. It’s not only Bangladesh, the entire sub-continent is concerned, maybe on different perspectives,” he said.
“We gave India comfort but did not get anything,” he said, adding that India had to realise that it cannot be “over comfortable keeping Bangladesh hungry”.
“Keep good relations with Bangladesh for your own interest,” he advised India.
Political analyst Salimullah Khan said when the BJP was in power, it could not do what it said would do before elections.
The BJP had said it would annul article 370 of the constitution pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir but when it came to power it could not, Khan said, trying to allay concerns.
He said there were “structural constraints” in forming a new government in India. “They cannot come to power with a clean majority,” he said, alluding to the fact that the allies mattered in taking decisions.
He, however, criticised India for not resolving issues with Bangladesh, particularly water-sharing deal and land boundary ratification.
He said India gained the “historical dividend” as a result of Bangladesh’s independence, “but it has not been reciprocated”.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Dev Mukherjee said the elections forecast on many occasions did not match the results.
He said West Bengal’s concerns about Teesta water-sharing is “unnecessary”. Both sides should understand that land boundary agreement did not mean acquisition of land.
“It’s for the future of the people who are stuck in enclaves,” he added.
Citing a survey that found Indians trust Bangladeshis most, he said “a change of a government cannot change the relationship and friendship overnight”.
He, however, said “it would have been better if Modi did not make the (illegal migrants) comment”.
He said India should be “deeply gratified” for the help it get from Bangladesh in countering terrorism.
Bangladesh’s former ambassador Muhammad Zamir termed Modi’s comment “irresponsible”.
He hoped that Election Commission in India would “take to task Modi and his group”.
“I want them to take into account such unnecessary disparaging comments about your neighbour only for the sake of getting votes,” he said.
Referring to unresolved issues, Zamir said he was “optimistic” about India-Bangladesh relations as he believed “glass half full and half empty do not make difference”.
“….but don’t make it three-fourth empty, because in that case you will end up losing 160 million support, they need water, dignity and not disparaging comments, that’s it,” he asserted.
New Delhi-based Senior Journalist Mahendra Ved who was present at the roundtable maintained that Bangladesh’s interest on Indian elections “must not confine” to Modi’s comment.
Professor of International Relations at Dhaka University Akmal Hussain termed the Modi comment “aggressive” and said there were no specific statistics on the number of illegal migrants in India.
Former ambassador Nasim Firdaus, however, said “whoever comes to power in India does not matter” as their foreign policy remained mostly unchanged.
“We need solutions on river sharing and there must be zero tolerance (towards killings) along the border,” she said.
Former ambassador Waliur Rahman, however, said the relations had been at “the best” in the last five years.
He blamed the bureaucrats for not supporting the issues that needed to be resolved.
He, however, criticised India’s “strict visa regime” that he said made Bangladeshis “anti-India” when they were refused.
Kolkata-based Anandabazar Patrika’s New Delhi Bureau Chief Jayanta Ghosal joined the roundtable through Skype and he said Modi’s comment would not shape India-Bangladesh relations.
He said both countries have “mature” foreign policy and that Bangladesh’s role in geo-political context could not be ignored.
Ghosal said Modi’s comment was “to incite the Bengali nationalism” for votes but it would be “different” when he would govern, if he became prime minister.
The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam said Modi must be “too big a leader to understand this message that will have impact in the neighbourhood”.
He said he “personally think we Bangladeshis wait in tremendous uncertainty but we will be ready to deal with the government in bilateral manner”.
“We have seen in the past, Indian foreign policy did not change with the change of regime,” he said.
He extolled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her role to strengthen India-Bangladesh relations but said “India failed to give a new direction to India-Bangladesh relationship”.
He called himself “a great believer” of India-Bangladesh relations and said “we see anti-India campaign of BNP but when they assume power we see different relationship”.
“I am a severe critic of the government on many counts, but Sheikh Hasina’s policy on opening up ties with India, I support it strongly’”, he said.
He said Bangladesh changed “the canvas of India-Bangladesh relations” and “Sheikh Hasina must be given due credit for a new vista in our relationship.”
“India failed to understand the significance and depth of possibility of the changes that were possible,” he said, adding that Teesta was an example of “shameful events” between two countries.
bdnews24.com Chief Editor Toufique Imrose Khalidi said there had been concerns among the people, particularly after the exit poll results.
“There is reason to be frightened,” he said, citing social media particularly Facebook uproar after Modi’s comment and the exit poll results.
“Some say it’s in fact inciting fundamentalism in Bangladesh.”
He referred to journalist Kuldip Nayar’s comment and said it was a matter of concern that now “liberal voices” were decreasing in the sub-continent.
“I think we need to work towards that…towards increasing that voice, we need to become louder than that,” Khalidi said, “that is a key element”.
Discussants have been saying that many issues remained unresolved despite the relations at “the best” in the last five years,
Khalidi said: “So the worry and apprehension in Bangladesh is that it’s going to get worse if the results of exit polls come true.”
He suggested the need to increase the “liberal voices” so that those became “stronger”.
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